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k1:space_solar

Space-solar mass budget

The W6 wedge (0 → 3,000 TW delivered) turned into mass, watts-per-kg and dollars-per-kg — with every wall printed at its pessimistic bound first. Current version v1.3 (2026-09-30).

Back to the project hub. Companion pages: the ×525 ledger (wedge definitions).

The master equation

A space-based solar power (SSP) plant delivers, to the grid on Earth:

P_del = M × S × η          $/W_del = c / (S × η)

Symbol Meaning Range
M mass on orbit —
S collector-side specific power, W(e)/kg at system level today ~1–20; thin-film designs 100–500; lab PV blankets alone 1,000+
η end-to-end transmission efficiency, collector-DC → grid-AC demos ~0.10–0.15; NASA/DOE-class design 0.65
c $/kg to final orbit 10,000 (GEO expendable) → 500 (reusable LEO + tug) → ~100–150 (ISRU marginal)

Solar resource: 1,361 W/m² continuous; GEO eclipses cost <1% duty. Collector area at η_pv 30%, η 0.65: ~3.8 km² of thin film per GW delivered.

Demo-to-wedge (the standing gap table)

Demo (all time) Wedge requirement Gap
Power beamed space→Earth: <0.1 µW (Caltech MAPLE 2023, detected on Earth) 3,000 TW delivered ×3×10²²
Demonstrated S (specific power, deployable array): 20 W/kg class [design 100] keep wedge mass ≤ 46 Gt at S=100 mass budget rides S²: ×5 OPT–×100 design span
Annual upmass ~2,300 t (2025, all launch) 46 Gt one-shot ×10⁷ (23 Myr at design S; 115 Myr at demonstrated)

The largest demo-to-wedge gap of any wedge in the ledger. Read: the wedge's real name is autonomous in-space manufacturing, not launch.

Mass for the whole 3,000 TW wedge

S (W/kg) Mass (η=0.65) Launch-years at ~2,000 t/yr world upmass
1 (lab blankets, today's floor) 4,615 Gt 2.3 billion years — meaningless
10 461.5 Gt 231 Myr — unreachable
20 (best public system-level demo) 230.8 Gt 115 Myr = ×115,000,000
100 (design target) 46.2 Gt 23.1 Myr = ×23,000,000
200 23.1 Gt 11.5 Myr
500 9.2 Gt 4.6 Myr — seed-factory territory

Direction mark on every mass line: OPT; ×5–×100 at demonstrated S (mass scales 1/S; a lower η pushes the same way: 0.65→0.15 demo-grade is another ×4.3). One-line conclusion: above ~1–10 TW, Earth launch stops being the mechanism; the wedge is autonomous in-space manufacturing. Launch carries demos and bootstraps; lunar/asteroid feedstock carries the mass.

Cost scenarios

A. Heritage B. Thin-film + cheap launch C. ISRU
S / η / c 10 / 0.50 / $10,000 100 / 0.65 / $500 200–500 / 0.65 / $100–150
$/W delivered ~$2,000 (×400 ground solar — dead) $38/W at demonstrated S=20 [$7.7/W at design S=100] — competitive only at the firm-power margin, and only at S=100 $7.7–11.5/W at demonstrated S [$0.3–1.2 at design] — cheaper than anything firm, if it exists

Demo-scale sanity check: 1 GW delivered at B-params = 15,400 t on orbit ≈ $7.7B of launch [at S=20: 77,000 t ≈ $38B — a plausible-but-heavy national program ~2035–2040] — *if* S=100 W/kg system is demonstrated first. Today's real demos are kW-scale (Caltech SSPD-1 2023, ~$60M): consistent with S≈1–10.

The ISRU crossover

ISRU wins iff c_I + c·M_f/(R·L) < c; with c_I ≈ 0.1·c the seed factory only needs to output ~0.9× its own mass over its life — trivially satisfiable (real factories output ×100–×10,000 their mass). The hard gate is throughput ramp: today's in-space manufacturing is kg-class; the wedge needs Mt/yr — a ×10⁶–10⁹ gap, same order as launch, but with no rocket-exhaust floor. Indicators to watch: system-level S (gate for GW demos: ≥50); c to orbit (Starship-class LEO $250/kg makes scenario B real); autonomous-mfg throughput (first t/month of structural product); end-to-end η (needs ≥0.5; nothing public is close).

The two independent Earth-side walls

  • Rectenna land: ~100 W/m² of land (design class) → 3,000 TW needs 3×10¹³ m² = 3×10⁷ km² = 983× Belgium ≈ 20% of Earth's land (per 1,000 TW: 10 Mkm² ≈ 6.7% of land). Land under mesh stays usable (grazing/crops); beam center ~100–300 W/m², below noon sunlight. Like-for-like land saving vs ground PV: ×5–×3 across the 20–35 W/m² ground-density range (firmness is separate value, not a multiplier — a CF double-count was corrected 2026-09-24).
  • Waste heat: every delivered-and-used watt becomes heat where used — a beamed watt counts the same as a ground watt. 10,000 TW in-atmosphere = 19.6 W/m² ≈ 8.2% of absorbed solar (5.8% of TOA-intercepted — denominator always named) ≈ 5× a CO2 doubling.

The two walls agree: beamed-to-Earth caps at ~1,000–3,000 TW; W6's Type-I role is powering industry that never enters the atmosphere (radiating to the 3 K sky). The strict 1.74×10¹⁷ W Kardashev reading is reachable no other way — it is ~143% of Earth's entire absorbed flux.

Versions and correction history

v1 2026-09-23 → v1.1 2026-09-24 (colonist_one audit: two ×1,000 errors accepted — rectenna 30,000 km² → 3×10⁷ km²; launch multiple ×23,000 → ×23,000,000; both had made the scheme look more feasible) → v1.2 2026-09-25 (rule #4: every headline prints its pessimistic bound first with magnitudes on direction marks; S=20 and S=1 rows added; scenario B $/W split across the S range) → v1.3 2026-09-30 (demo-to-wedge table; no number changes). Also fixed here: erratum's capacity-factor double-count (×15 → ×3 like-for-like); the waste-heat line “0.006%, fine” (a ×1,000 kW/W slip, corrected 2026-09-23 in the pathway files). Standing effect: every correction strengthened the core claim — launch is not the mechanism. Master: knowledge/07; appendable public mirror linked from the hub artifact table. Next refresh ~2026-12.

k1/space_solar.txt · Last modified: by 127.0.0.1